More downpours expected as storm cleanup progresses in Marin, Sonoma, Napa counties

Here’s what’s been happening amid the storms this week in Napa, Sonoma and Marin counties as of 5 p.m. Thursday.

Napa County

As Wednesday’s storm lead approached, Napa County officials prepared to test Napa’s flood defenses, closing flood gates on the Napa River intended to divert water into a park-like basin in thecity. But by Thursday, it turned out the Napa River didn’t rise as high as expected.

At 7 a.m. Thursday, the river just north of Napa peaked at 16.4 feet, below the prediction from the National Weather Service’s California Nevada River Forecast Center of 19.4 feet. That had neared the 20-foot mark when flood gates in the Oxbow Bypass area were closed at 5 p.m. on Wednesday.

But because the river level now is expected to fall through Friday morning, county officials called for the flood gates on McKinstry Street to be opened just before noon Thursday.

Yet as two more storms are expected to arrive Friday and Monday mornings, swelling the river level in Napa to a projected 19.6 feet by 10 a.m. Saturday, the county flood-control district plans to close the gates again Saturday afternoon and leave them shut through Tuesday.

Peju Winery Director of Operations Dan Gaffey said his team is closely monitoring the weather forecast and stream levels, as the vintner’s 30-acre Rutherford estate stretches from Highway 29 to the Napa River between St. Helena and Yountville. He notes that the projected cresting of the river at 22 feet by Tuesday comes close to the 25-foot flood stage.

"We will be monitoring levels through the weekend, communicating with our teams in real-time, and offering remote alternatives for guests in case of weather-related delays," Gaffey said.

The winery has been part of the Napa River Rutherford Reach Restoration Project, which has been working for the past several years to reduce bank erosion and flood damage.

Sonoma County

Updated, Friday, Jan. 6, 11 a.m.: Forecasters on Thursday had substantially revised their projections for the Russian River’s rise in Guerneville and now say the river is more likely to rise just 4 feet or so above flood stage by early Monday, rather than 8, The Press Demorcrat reported.

That could have meant a huge relief to residents and business owners along the lower reaches of the river, many of which are now more likely to be spared damage if projections hold true, according to the newspaper.

But on Friday morning, the forecast changed as storms lined up off the West Coast, The Press Democrat reported. Continued rain this weekend and Monday on an already saturated landscape is now expected to push the lower Russian River above 39 feet — or seven feet above flood stage — on Tuesday evening. On Thursday, the projection was for 39.7 feet by Monday.

It’s the latest in a series of fluctuating projections from the weather service’s river forecast center, which has been trying to keep up with ebbs and flows in rainfall and runoff in the 1,500-square-mile watershed.

Thousands of residents along the river and its tributaries between Healdsburg and Jenner below the 40-foot level since Wednesday night have been under an evacuation warning instructing them to be prepared to evacuate if conditions warrant it.

But the storm Wednesday night and Thursday morning knocked out power to 17,830 Pacific Gas & Electric Co. customers in Sonoma County as of 1:20 p.m. Thursday, the newspaper reported. (See a current map of local power outages.)

Marin County

With wind gusts already surpassing 101mph and rain totals expected to reach the double digits in isolated areas by this time next week, Marin County businesses and residents are not out of the woods in facing threats rising out of these back-to-back storms.

Three storms due to emerge Friday, Monday and Thursday are expected to produce 4- to 6 inches of rain in the lower elevations; and 6 to 9 inches on the Marin Highlands — with isolated areas possibly sustaining 12 inches of rain in the higher elevations, the National Weather Service reported Thursday morning.

The Bay Area is enduring a stormy weather pattern for the next few weeks.

“We are seeing the likelihood of above precipitation over the next eight- to 14-day period,” Meteorologist Dial Hoang said.

That unsettled pattern appears to be trending through January, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center forecasters laid out.

“What’s ongoing in these atmospheric events is definitely a wet pattern. It’s happened before, but the accumulation of one after another is abnormal and can increase the chance of flooding,” NOAA meteorologist Brad Pugh told the Business Journal.

Accompanying the “intense” continuous rain is wind.

The weather service clocked a wind speed over 100mph in the Nicasio Hills west of Novato; one at 90mph in the Marin Highlands northwest of San Rafael; and another at 83mph northwest of San Rafael. Collectively, five stations in Marin County reported gusts over 80mph in the last 24 hours.

The high winds have resulted in havoc for trees and power poles attached to lines. Three large swaths of power outages in Marin County west of San Rafael, Greenbrae and Larkspur amounting to about 15,000 customers in the dark were reported by Pacific Gas & Electric as of Thursday morning.

Mill Valley took the brunt of the outages, enduring the wrath of pounding rain delivering the latest road closure.

Miller Avenue at Camino Alto was closed in both directions as a result of flooding, the city police department reported.

Earlier, other road closures resulting from flooding, debris and downed power lines were reported on Shoreline Highway between Point Reyes and Tomales; Bolinas-Fairfax Road; and Lucas Valley Road, according to Marin County updates. Highway 1 was shut down between Stinson and Muir beaches due to a rockslide.

Marin County Fire’s swift water rescue unit came to the aid of Stinson Beach residents needing to evacuate encroaching storm surge.

“We have definitely saturated the ground,” Marin County Fire Battalion Chief Brett McTigue told the Business Journal, as scanner traffic blared in the background.

Beach area businesses on the Marin County coastline are feeling the pinch of fewer customers with Highway 1 remaining closed as of Thursday afternoon.

“It’s very, very slow compared to last week,” said Connor Scutt, a worker at Stinson Beach Market on Calle del Mar. The lifelong Bolinas resident believes the stormy weather represents a normal winter in the Bay Area — but perhaps not to this extent.

“It’s extreme because our (years of) a lack of water, and this is one helluva storm,” he said.

At the nearby Parkside Café on Arenal Avenue, Manager Ronan Deleon said workers were forced to take an alternative route to the beachside village, using the Panoramic Highway instead of Highway 1. Other than that, Deleon plans to remain open to feed the local residents.

Businesses in cities located near streams like Fairfax and San Anselmo running through the Marin County hillsides are keeping a close eye on the storms’ impact on rising waters. In particular, Fairfax and San Anselmo creeks can become problematic for businesses near their banks. San Anselmo Creek is long and runs through both Fairfax and San Anselmo.

Farm and ranch operators are tasked with channeling water and averting low-flying limbs in high winds

With an all-hands-on-deck approach from businesses watching the water levels and hillsides, some are grateful the rain caused mudflows or flooding in their operations yet.

Tucked in the hills west of Petaluma on the Sonoma-Marin county line is McEvoy Ranch, which makes olives a burgeoning business.

“We have fared really well. Our careful conservative land management practices have led to resiliency,” McEvoy Ranch General Manager Samantha Dorsey told the Business Journal Thursday morning.

Farming operators like Stemple Creek Ranch out of Tomales are tasked with channeling water and averting low-flying limbs in high winds.

“I’ve got a chainsaw in one hand and a shovel in the other,” Loren Poncia said. “We haven’t seen a storm like this for a while, one with wind and rain combined. It’s never good to have this much water saturating the soil. But the good news is, the water leaving the ranch is crystal clear. I guess I’m an optimist.”

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The Press Democrat contributed to this report.