Sonoma County misses move to fewer pandemic restrictions; Mendocino County on the cusp of move back to more limits
Sonoma County barely missed its anticipated move this week into the least-restrictive tier of California’s reopening plan, as state health officials on Tuesday deemed its coronavirus case rate to be a tad too high.
Meanwhile, Mendocino County in its second week of being the only North Bay county to move into that least-restrictive tier was found to have case and infection rates that are too high to remain there, if the trend continues, according to the state’s weekly assessment of virus transmission risk in the 58 counties.
Case rates per 100,000 population, test-positivity rates and an equity adjustment are the three key metrics state public health officials use for assigning counties to risk tiers. The assignments come on Tuesdays and take effect on Wednesdays.
At stake with these tier transitions is the ability for businesses to reopen at greater capacity indoors, with pandemic protocols. A move downward means a reinstatement of capacity and other operating restrictions, such as restaurants and certain other businesses having to revert to more outside seating, takeout and delivery.
Sonoma, San Mateo, Monterey, Mono and Modoc counties had case and infection rates low enough last week to qualify for a move Wednesday from orange tier (“moderate” risk) into the yellow tier (“minimal” risk) tier, according to that week’s data release. But only San Mateo and Mono moved into yellow, the state’s assessment showed Tuesday.
Sonoma County had an adjusted case rate of 2.4 per 100,000 for the evaluation period, which covers seven days ending May 1. The threshold for the yellow tier is fewer than 2 cases per 100,000. The county’s equity-adjusted infection rate was 1.2%, and Sonoma’s test positivity has been below the 2% threshold for yellow for five weeks.
A county must have its metrics within tier criteria for two weeks before making the move, so Sonoma County could be eligible for a move by the end of this month, according to The Press Democrat.
Marin County seven weeks ago was the first in the North Bay to move into the orange tier. It has come close to qualifying for the yellow tier in recent weeks, according to the Marin Independent Journal.
Marin County’s equity-adjusted positivity rate was 1.4%, and it been under the 2.0% threshold for yellow for six weeks. But the county’s most recent adjusted case rate was 3.0 per 100,000.
And the Bay Area’s remaining county in the second-most-restrictive tier is projecting that higher case rates will keep Solano in that red tier (“substantial” transmission risk) until June 15, when Sacramento has signaled that it will end restrictions related to the already 8-month-old four-tiered Blueprint for a Safer Economy reopening plan. Solano has been in the red tier for nine weeks.
The county’s equity-adjusted test-positivity rate decreased to 2.0% — just at the yellow-tier threshold — but the adjusted case rate was 7.1 per 100,000, solidly within the red-tier range of 6–10.
“Most cases in Solano County are with people under 40 years of age,” Jayleen Richards, county public health administrator, told the Business Journal. “The good news is that hospital and ICU capacity remain in good standing. Additionally, we are also very pleased with the number of eligible people in Solano County receiving the vaccine.”
Of county residents age 16 and older, 59% have received at least one dose, and 41% are fully vaccinated, including single-shot vaccines, according to state figures. By comparison, 85% of that age group in Marin have had at least one shot and 71% have had them all; in Napa, 74% and 53%; in Sonoma, 69% and 53%; Mendocino, 60% and 47%; and Lake, 47% and 37%.
Mendocino County was moved into the yellow tier on April 26, but this week it’s metrics were back in orange territory, with a positivity rate of 2.8% and adjusted case rate of 4.5 per 100,000, according to state figures.
Lake County has been in the orange tier for four weeks and this week was at the low end of that level, with a positivity rate of 2.2% and adjusted case rate of 3.7 per 100,000.
