Wealth managers’ advice on making sense of the times

Heard the chatter about inflation, or the “R” word - recession. How aobut the stock market? Yes, it’s been a rollercoaster of news on the economy and its future. Which means, what do you do about your investments?

The Journal asked area financial advisers for their advice on how to navigate the currently turbulent wealth management waters. For more of their insight, go to www.nbbj.news/wealth.

Inflation is here and robust. What are you advising your clients? What actions can they take to protect their investments?

Joe Delaney

Diversification is the name of the game and is always important but perhaps no more than now. We augment our investment strategy with various alternative investments that have very attractive qualities and virtually no correlation to a traditional stock and bond portfolio. Adding alternatives round out our portfolios nicely and are a great inflation hedge.

Matthew Delaney

Inflation has been a big surprise for people in the last few months, especially those on a fixed income. It’s important to remember that we have had high inflation before.

Investors should consider Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) as a portion of their fixed income portfolio. Too often, investors will shy away from TIPS because the return is less than a nominal bond.

While that is true, the unknown inflation component is what they are paying for. We are seeing investors looking to buy TIPS now, but unfortunately, buying TIPS once inflation arrives at your doorstep is too late to gain an immediate benefit. It’s also important to build a bond ladder to allow for maturing bonds each year. This allows you take advantage of higher rates as they increase over time.

James E. Demmert

We would recommend that investors be proactive with their investments. Hope is not a strategy in the current volatile environment.

For our clients, we began de-risking their portfolios towards the end of the first quarter by decreasing equity exposure and rotating to defensive, value-oriented stocks. We utilize stop losses for our clients, so the process of lowering risk happened very naturally as parts of the market began to decline more than normal.

Taking a more proactive, conservative approach not only prevents your assets from fully riding the market down, but also gives you dry powder to put back to work once the market begins to rebound. The silver lining of any bear market is that fantastic opportunities arise once the market fully capitulates. We are excited to see this market recover and would recommend that investors create a plan for when it happens as we have for our clients.

Sean Desmarais / Rupa Jack

As inflation expectations ease and the economy downshifts to slower growth, investors may see new opportunities emerge. Investors should watch for earnings expectations to recalibrate and consider adding both defense and offense in their portfolios: investment-grade credit for the former and “growth at a reasonable price” security selection, focused on companies whose stock valuations look low compared with their long-term growth rates, for the latter.

Also, consider maximizing portfolio diversification by region, sector and market capitalization.

Tom Hubert

We’re advising clients to review their portfolio and make sure they have allocated it in a way that will outpace inflation over the long haul. Inflation tends to have the biggest impact on fixed income and cash.

Key will be understanding the level of risk you’re comfortable with and implementing strategies that maximize opportunities specific to your needs.

Aria Krumwiede

While the July Consumer Price Index was welcome news to investors broadly, prices are still much higher than they were a year ago, and core inflation of 0.3% per month still implies an annual pace of inflation well above the Fed’s target of ~2%.

The Fed’s hiking cycle will need to continue until they see additional convincing evidence that inflation is moving back towards their target. That being said, we aren’t in the clear yet. The recent rally we’ve seen in the summer months has provided an opportunity to look at portfolios holistically to make sure portfolios are in line with investors’ risk tolerance and that there is a proper balance across sectors, style, size, and geography.

From an asset protection and risk/return perspective, parts of the fixed income markets are providing for an attractive entry point with higher yields, especially for those who are looking for a buffer against potentially adverse economic outcomes in the near future.

Gordon Langs

Diversify.  Have exposure to real assets, which will have a built in element of inflation protection.  Own equity in companies which have strong market positions and the ability to pass along price increases to customers.  Use TIPS as part of fixed-income allocations.

Sandra Loewen

Inflation news has been overshadowed by recession worries. Consumer discretionary stocks, which held up well in post-lockdown 2021, have taken a beating in 2022, likely due in part to Wall Street forecasts of recession this year.

However, since mid-June, consumer discretionary stocks have shown much improvement as Wall Street seems to expect better economic conditions around the bend.

While consumers and retail investors react to current events, Wall Street anticipates the news well in advance. That’s one reason why stock prices often seem to be going in the wrong direction based on the news--the market has already priced in the inflation or recession news the client worried about and has moved on.

It also helps to remind our clients that over the long haul, U.S. stocks actually have a good track record of beating inflation. By selling out at the bottom, a client essentially locks in their losses, and holding too much cash can practically guarantee that they will lose ground. We encourage clients to remain committed to the investment strategy we’re managing for them.

Joseph F. McDonough

Inflation is definitely here. We suggest looking for quality companies and can grow their dividend to combat higher inflation and higher interest rates. Bonds still have a place for income and ballast against equity volatility. Be aware of your duration and look to stay short on the yield curve to insulate against inflation and higher interest rates.

Emily Menjou

Inflation has always been a natural occurrence in our economy. Still, periods of high inflation can cause clients to second guess their well-made plans, and our job is to help clients stay the course. We believe that a well-diversified, low cost investment plan should be set up from the start to deal with the ups and downs of the economy. Our portfolios typically include some allocation toward investment vehicles that are known to be more resilient during inflationary periods.

Bruce Raabe

First, don’t panic or make major changes to your investment strategy. Inflation is certainly a concern, but real assets and equities often do just fine during these periods. I expect inflation to moderate over the next year as the economy slows down.

The stock market is, at best, erratic. Clients no doubt are worried about their 401ks. Besides “stay the course,” what are you telling them to do?

Joe Delaney

Each client is unique at Lifeguard Wealth. We meet regularly with our clients to check in with them and revisit their financial plan. Market volatility is just one of the many topics we may discuss with them.

We encourage them to continue investing through their 401k and taxable accounts and to follow the plan which includes rebalancing when their various asset classes get out of tolerance.

We also regularly tax loss harvest to capture any losses that may present themselves during periods of downward volatility. During "erratic" markets like we are experiencing today, some of our newer clients may need a bit more hand holding so we make a practice of touching base with them more often to discuss any concerns they may have or more importantly discuss their plans for the summer.

Matthew Delaney

You can’t control the stock market so stop trying to make predictions on where it’s headed in the short run.

This is great time to rebalance your 401(k) to take advantage of moving prices. In an effort to not make a bad investment decision, you should take this time review your spending to make sure you are looking within your means.

What can you cut out? Eat out less? Attend more free events? Less coffee stops? Everything adds up and if you can be aggressive with your spending, it will make a huge difference in the long term.

James E. Demmert

We are currently encouraging all our clients to create or update their financial plans with one of our Certified Financial Planners.

The financial plans that we tailor for our clients are extremely comprehensive, taking into account all parts of their financial lives. It is critical to have a financial plan in place to ensure that your spending habits and plans are appropriate. These financial plans also help our Portfolio Managers craft portfolios that align with long-term risk and return goals.

Our clients feel confident about the durability of their financial plans because the modeling process already considers market volatility. Even in extremely complex and volatile times like today, clients feel assured that their financial ambitions are still within reach because of these plans.

Sean Desmarais / Rupa Jack

In an environment where past-cycle playbooks may prove ineffective, alternative investments may serve a valuable role in portfolio construction. This means investors may need to seek returns elsewhere—that is, balance portfolios away from bonds toward assets such as real estate. private core strategies, for example, may fit the bill.

Other diversifiers include illiquid investments in private equity and private credit, infrastructure and green energy, as well as lower-risk hedge fund strategies that may provide more attractive risk/return potential. We reiterate it’s important to recognize that alternative strategies are not all the same, nor are they right for all investors, who need to evaluate return, risk, income and liquidity profiles depending on the alternative investment they are considering.

Tom Hubert

A volatile market can become concerning. The most important step is taking the time to educate yourself.

Focus on financial goals – If you are already invested, don’t panic, and stay the course. Investments are long term, so don’t let the short term change the focus.

Diversify – Not everything moves in the same direction at the same time. Determining the right allocation for you will help you weather market volatility.

Educate yourself – Learn about the investments you own. Not all are market driven and there is a broad range of solutions with varying degrees of risk to help you meet your personal needs.

It may be a good time to invest – The saying goes that we “should be greedy when others are fearful.” Nothing can prevent losses, but there are time-tested strategies that can be implemented. Tactics such as dollar cost averaging or increasing your contributions to your retirement plan might be a good idea.

Talk to an expert – Our CFS Financial Advisors have the licensing, expertise, and passion needed to help determine the right action to take to ensure you, your friends, and your family remain on track.

Aria Krumwiede

While periods of volatility are normal and to be expected within markets, it can create fear and drive emotional responses from investors.

During these times, it’s important to separate emotions from investment decisions and focus on the fundamentals of investing. 401(k) accounts, particularly for those who are several years away from retirement, have a long time horizon, and all things being equal, this provides investors the ability to take on higher levels of risk. With the market pullback we’ve seen this year, valuations across both equities and fixed income look more attractive on a relative basis and present buying opportunities for long-term investors.

However, the risk of recession over the next 12 months has elevated, and each investor will need to have a solid game plan in place to navigate this period of uncertainty and be equipped to take advantage of the dislocations and opportunities that arise.

Gordon Langs

Meet with your adviser.  Don’t try to time the market.  Particularly with tax deferred investments like 401k’s, invest consistently throughout the cycle.

To the extent that you are focused on goals and funding them with appropriate assets, there is no need to panic.  Revisit goals and rebalance regularly and periodically.

Sandra Loewen

We strongly encourage clients to:

1) live on 90% or less of what you earn;

2) wisely invest the other 10% for your future or the future of your family, using your investments to create a future income stream;

3) guard your investments from market crashes by tactically tilting the allocation as the economy changes;

4) watch for opportunities to buy a home, rather than rent;

5) if you own a home, review your homeowners’ insurance to make sure you have adequate coverage; 6) evaluate your spending;

7) study and learn ways to increase your earning power;

and 8) continue contributing to your 401k—buying now will position you well for when the market eventually rises again.

Ideal investors have a goal, a strategy and a plan. Establishing these three is the hard part. Once you have them, the rest falls into place; you can ignore the news hype around higher inflation, a coming recession, what the Fed is doing, what other countries are doing, and whatever big stories are coming from the White House.

In other words, you can stop worrying, watching the news and constantly checking your portfolio. We often tell clients that if stock market news is keeping them up at night, they may have too much invested there, and not enough covering their other financial bases.

Joseph F. McDonough

Use the volatility to your advantage. Rebalance to your asset allocation which is no doubt skewed after recent market volatility. If you can afford it, increase your contributions to take advantage of better entry points.

Emily Menjou

There are several ways to increase the likelihood of a successful 401(k) balance by retirement. Participants looking to maximize their retirement savings should ensure they are contributing as much as they can each year and taking full advantage of any employer matches that are available. Plan participants should also ensure that they are taking an appropriate level of risk via their investment allocations, as the market historically rewards risk over a long-term time horizon. Lastly, plan participants should opt for low cost investment vehicles in their 401(k) plans whenever possible, as investment costs can be a drag on returns.

Bruce Raabe

Diversify your investments within each asset class. Today, owning individual stocks can add tremendous volatility to your portfolio. We prefer to diversify across several strategies for each asset class including equities.

Real estate is cooling, at least for now. Do you see it becoming more of a buyer’s market? What investment opportunities does this shift present?

Joe Delaney

The residential real estate market is shifting from an extreme seller's market to something more balanced and that is a good thing. I believe this trend will continue for some period of time. There are a lot of economic headwinds from high inflation, rising interest rates, a volatile stock market, waning investor confidence, cooling capital markets, slowing job growth and other factors.

This is a good time to follow a written and thoughtful investment plan, build up cash reserves, but also keep investing (there is sale going on!) and continue to live your life.

Matthew Delaney

With most real estate markets starting to settle, I see it becoming a buyers market. There will be plenty of inventory and buyers will have the opportunity to put themselves in the driver’s seat. It’s important to maintain a diversified portfolio and real estate plays a big part in that.

James E. Demmert

The residential and commercial real estate markets are still quite resilient when you look at broad market price indices such as the FHFA US House and FOF Commercial Real Estate Price Indices.

Of course, these are very high-level indicators and should be taken with a grain of salt. There are parts of the real estate market that certainly are cooling down while others remain hot. The parts of the market with elevated prices should certainly start to decline as we are seeing that new home and existing home sales are beginning to decline dramatically.

In addition, increasing mortgage rates will continue to squeeze real estate purchasers, or investors, as borrowing becomes more expensive. For those with adequate liquidity available, and those that can absorb larger borrowing costs, the trend of the real estate market does present an opportunity.

Given the unique nature of each real estate investment, the size of the opportunity will vary based on the investor's research, plan, and ability to execute.

Sean Desmarais / Rupa Jack

Rising mortgage rates have historically put the brakes on home-price appreciation, but this housing market is like no other.

Record-low supplies, years of conservative lending and other factors suggest that home prices should continue appreciating, though at a slower pace. This market has many unique characteristics—including limited supply, significant home equity and healthy owner finances—that suggest it won’t follow the same trajectory as the great housing boom and bust of the early 2000s.

Although home price appreciation is likely to slow, these dynamics could keep home prices climbing. Rising mortgage rates could potentially squeeze supply even further and exacerbate affordability gaps.

Aria Krumwiede

In this current high-inflationary environment, investors are still turning to real estate for inflation protection and broader portfolio diversification. While home buyers have felt the pressure with the Fed hikes and with 30-year mortgage rates over 5%, the real estate market has not yet seen a broad, material repricing just yet.

If and when the repricing does take place, not all parts of the real estate market will be treated equally and dispersion will be impacted by sector and asset quality. This dispersion would present opportunities, particularly across sectors that stand to benefit from long-term, secular trends, such as multifamily.

Gordon Langs

Yes, we are already seeing a shift to more of a buyer’s market in residential real estate, despite continued modest inventory levels.

Residential mortgage rates are 2% or more higher than they were a year ago, which has significantly increased the monthly cost of home ownership for those using debt and thus shrinking the pool of qualified buyers.

That said, residential real estate has traditionally been a good inflation hedge ,job growth continues to be favorable, and hybrid work appears to be the office model for the foreseeable future, which means workers will seek homes to accommodate work-life balance. All of these are positive signals for those who are looking to purchase residential real estate and do not need to use significant leverage to do so.

Tom Hubert

There are several markets to consider when discussing real estate, ranging from the local North Bay communities to the national market.

Each market can perform significantly different than others. In this locale, it does not appear that our communities will transition to a buyer’s market mostly due to a lack of inventory.

Regardless, real estate should be looked at long term, and when we do that, we can see it has historically performed well. The biggest concern is affordability, but RCU will keep an eye on that and continue to provide solutions that help members.

Sandra Loewen

While buyers may find homes at lower prices now--or at least see prices rising more slowly than in the recent past--it feels like we have a way to go before we actually see a buyer’s market in residential real estate. I

f prices cool, there may also be fewer homes on the market, and together with rising interest rates, buyers may still be in a tough spot.

Investors continue to make their buy/sell decisions based upon their return on investment (ROI). A cooling real estate market doesn’t change that, although lower prices combined with rising rents could certainly make that target ROI a little easier to hit.

Joseph F. McDonough

It really depends on the Bay Area market you are looking at. Houses staying on the market for longer time periods indicates better value and less completion. (Higher rates makes it harder to qualify for a loan). If clients have capital, rental properties can be a good diversifier for clients fully invested in the stock market and can potentially carry good cash flow.

Emily Menjou

Real estate investing certainly has its benefits and many of our clients come to us with significant real estate exposure. While we do manage real estate in many of our portfolios (particularly in trust administration), real estate is not a key component of our typical investment management strategy.

Instead, we favor well diversified portfolios of high-quality, low-cost investment vehicles which help to minimize risk while maximizing return for our clients. If clients wish to explore real estate opportunities in their portfolios, we suggest that they make those decisions based on long term goals, not based upon short term changes in the market.

Bruce Raabe

Yes. The Covid crisis, combined with very low interest rates and massive government stimulus, created a perfect storm of demand for residential real estate.

Now that mortgage rates have nearly doubled and home prices are peaking, we can expect a more normal real estate market. With inflation still being a real problem, residential real estate will likely hold up well in the coming years. The jury is still out on the ultimate demand for commercial and retail real estate, so I’d be avoiding those assets classes for now.

The Fed has acted to address inflation by pushing up interest rates, hoping to cool the economy without letting it fall into recession. Is that the correct approach? Why or why not?

Joe Delaney

The Federal Reserve (The Fed) has very few tools in their tool chest. I believe they were too aggressive during COVID but then again it was a new and challenging environment.

Better to have gone aggressive than not. Can they thread the needle and execute a soft landing? Probably not, but overall I think they are doing a good job managing inflation albeit playing a bit of catch-up right now.

Matthew Delaney

Yes, the Fed did the right thing when they stepped in to raise interest rates in effort to fight inflation.

Unfortunately, when the Fed increases rates at such a quick pace, there are winners and losers. The borrows feel the immediate pain when applying for a mortgage and they are faced with paying hundreds more per month.

The savers see the immediate bump in their bank savings rate and they can now earn more than 1% on their money. It’s important for the Fed to be clear when communicating their plan moving forward.

James E. Demmert

This has historically been the correct approach, but time will tell if it can successfully tame inflation this time around.

If we continue to see elevated inflation readings and faster than expected interest rate hikes, then pushing the economy into a recession may be the Fed’s only option.

While a recession is not great for consumers, or businesses, it is better than continuing to see inflation at the levels we are currently experiencing.

Long-term, sustained inflation can lead to serious societal problems and civil unrest, but we have faith that the Fed will continue to take a tough stance against inflation until it is lowered close to its 2% target. We are already witnessing a much more aggressive response here in America than in other developed parts of the world experiencing inflation. As supply chain difficulties naturally improve over time, this will also help inflation and ease the Fed’s burden.

Sean Desmarais / Rupa Jack

Recessions are usually characterized by excesses—in areas like inventory, manufacturing capacity or credit—that need to be wrung out of the system.

We’re not seeing those kinds of overhangs this time. Excesses this cycle have instead built up in financial markets and asset prices themselves. The biggest beneficiaries—the highly valued but unprofitable businesses that have relied on negative real interest rates to support valuations—will be hurt now that monetary-policy tightening is in play, but we don't expect this to produce systemic economic pain.

Tom Hubert

The answer to this question won’t be known until we can look back on this period historically.

Rates have been very low compared to historical standards and a lot of cash has been infused into our economy, but there are many factors that drive the economy.

We believe there are opportunities in each situation and changes in interest rates are generally short-term events. We closely and regularly monitor changes in interest rates along with other factors that may affect members.

Aria Krumwiede

Over the past 10 years+, we have seen an unprecedented level of stimulus being pumped into the economy, and the inflationary pressures it has created has been compounded by not just the global supply chain issues from COVID, but also Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,.

The normalization of monetary policy, through aggressive Fed rate hikes and quantitative tightening, is necessary to combat these unprecedented pressures. However, these efforts will require incredibly delicate maneuvering by the Fed to find balance in hiking rates enough to bring inflation down to a sustainable rate, but not so much that it pushes the economy into a deep recession.

Gordon Langs

The Fed’s primary policy tools are to set the level of short-term interest rates, control the money supply and craft the rhetoric which accompanies its actions.

It is aggressively using all three and rightfully so.  The Fed was too accommodative for too long as we came out of the depths of Covid.  The problem is that Fed actions have a lagged effect, and the impact of current actions will not be known for 2 to 24 months.

With this weakness in the feedback loop, there is a high likelihood that the Fed will over-correct.  Against this backdrop, investors should expect periods of volatility and should prepare themselves to deal with added uncertainties.  They should also have a plan   to take advantage of opportunities that will occur.

Sandra Loewen

The hawkish Fed and the confirmation of negative economic growth in the first two quarters of this year suggests inflation will have difficulty keeping its upward momentum and trajectory.

Inflation is primarily caused by too much demand and/or too little supply. The negative GDP tells us that there's PLENTY of slowing demand, which is giving companies plenty of time to catch up on supply.

We may even see a build-up in inventories. That, combined with less demand, should send prices lower and start deflationary discussions, resulting in a much more dovish Fed that will begin lowering rates later in 2022.

The wild card here is wage inflation and the difficulty of finding qualified workers—will employers be able to afford to lower prices, given increased employment costs? Today’s economy has so many moving parts that the “correct” approach will require more than one action.

Joseph F. McDonough

Yes, if done correctly. The Fed is committed to slowing inflation by tightening the money supply by increasing interest rates. The challenge is not to increase rates too much and too quickly, thus putting us in a recession. Only time will tell how well the Fed does, but so far it seems to be working.

Emily Menjou

Rate increases are the Fed’s main tool to fight inflation. With interest rates still relatively low and considering the Fed’s dual mandate for full employment and price stability, doing nothing and decreasing rates are not viable options which means that the only place to go is up.

The important question is how the Fed will continue to react going forward, as further rate hikes increase the chance of a recession. Will they slow down and stop raising interest rates in time to avoid a serious recession? Without a crystal ball, we may not know this answer until we look at this time in the rear view mirror.

Bruce Raabe

If you give a man a hammer, everything looks like a nail.

The Fed has only a few tools to slow inflation. Raising interest rates is their most powerful.

Unfortunately, the inflation we have today is caused by strong demand, short supplies of critical materials, the Russia-Ukraine war, and a shortage of workers in general.

Raising rates mostly impacts the demand for goods and services, not the other contributors to inflation. Overall, I’m not too concerned about the Fed and expect their activities to moderate later this year to keep our economy stable.