Jump-starting electric car batteries: Will supply problems stall California’s mandate?
After more than 30 years toiling in obscurity in the ultra-complex world of battery technology, Kurt Kelty and the other chemists, electrical engineers and minerals experts racing to design the next generation of electric vehicle batteries are at last having their moment.
Kelty, who ran Tesla’s battery cell team for more than a decade, now heads battery engineering at Sila Nanotechnologies, a Bay Area startup experimenting with new designs for EV power. When he started his career in the 1990s, Kelty avoided telling people at social gatherings he was in the battery industry because “you were relegated to the corner section of the cocktail party.”
“Now you go to parties and you are the center of attention,” he said. “Everyone wants to know what’s going on with batteries.”
Do they ever. For all of the policy hurdles and consumer reluctance bedeviling California’s transition to all-electric transportation, unlocking the battery puzzle is the most critical element to jump-starting the post-fossil fuel revolution.
Failure to deliver safe, affordable and efficient batteries for electric cars could mean that California fails to meet its landmark mandate, enacted last summer, to phase out new gasoline-powered cars by 2035.
As California enforces its first-in-the-world zero-emission requirements for cars, the state is navigating a policy path strewn with unique obstacles: international human rights and environmental issues, global resource constraints and fast-moving technologies.
The industry’s imperatives: Making cheaper, faster-charging and more durable EV batteries. Breaking China’s stranglehold on the industry, where 85% of batteries are produced or assembled. And discovering new sources of rare earth minerals to replace lithium mines in countries with unsafe labor practices and poor environmental oversight, and cobalt mines where human rights groups say children are mining ore with their bare hands.
Standing between the dream and the mandate are potential global supply chain disruptions, rising prices of materials, shifting geopolitical alliances and a profound retooling of a venerable industry.
Materials for electric car batteries come from mines and factories around the world, including
Africa, Australia, South America and Asia. Future exploration is contemplated in the Arctic Circle and the planet’s deep seabeds for mining rare-earth minerals.
Automakers are ramping up EV development and production, and some have already announced their intention to stop selling gasoline and diesel cars and electrify their entire fleets: General Motors set a 2035 goal, while Volvo and Mercedes set even more aggressive targets — full electrification by 2030. Ford so far has made a 2035 pledge to go electric only for models sold in Europe.
But the hill that automakers must climb is treacherous and quite steep. California officials have been planning for an electric future for decades, envisioning clean transportation that is sustainable, carbon free, better for the environment and affordable. That journey begins with batteries, and the road to get there is decidedly tricky.
The favored technology of the moment, lithium-ion batteries, can be dirty and dangerous during their lifecycle — from the mines in Chile and Australia to the cell factories in China and South Korea to the landfills where they can leak toxic substances.
Last month, Ford encountered a battery problem and was forced to temporarily suspend production and shipments of its popular all-electric 2023 F-150 Lightning pickup. A battery caught fire in a single truck during a pre-delivery check, the company said. The fire came after Ford issued a notice to EV pickup truck owners about “performance degradation” problems with the battery module that affected about 100 trucks. General Motors, Tesla, Hyundai and BMW, among other manufacturers, have also dealt with battery problems.
“Growing pains” doesn’t come close to describing the challenges that could thwart ambitions to fully electrify California’s transportation, at least in the short term. The sunny projections about an EV revolution are running into harsh, unavoidable reality.
“We do have a problem,” said Daniel Sperling, a UC Davis Institute of Transportation Studies professor who served on the California Air Resources Board that enacted the zero-emission car mandate last summer.
That problem, he said, is that the air board and other optimistic state officials did not adequately factor in the volatility of global markets, the impact of a worldwide pandemic and the cautiousness of industrial titans.