‘We’re seeing significant progress’: Marin, Napa counties look toward lower coronavirus case rates

Even with growing evidence its daily number of new COVID-19 cases are dropping, giving hope its current red-tier status may soon turn to orange, the numbers just aren’t there yet for Napa County.

On Oct. 6, California reported that Napa County’s state-adjusted rate of 5.1 new cases per 100,000 residents over seven days would keep the county in the red tier, reflecting a state classification of “substantial” COVID-19 transmission. A county must have less than four cases for two weeks straight to move into the orange category or, in the state’s point of view, “moderate” transmission.

The red tier puts fewer constraints on businesses than the purple tier, or widespread transmission. Counties in red may open a variety of indoor businesses, albeit with limited capacity, including restaurants, hotels, museums, gyms, and personal care services, such as nail salons and message shops.

But orange is even better. It not only allows indoor businesses more capacity, it also lets winery tasting rooms move back indoors.

Napa County Public Health Officer Dr. Karen Relucio was cautiously optimistic on Sept. 29 when she spoke with the Business Journal.

“We’re close. We have to have a daily case rate of less than 4 for two weeks consecutively to move us into the orange tier,” Relucio said, noting that as of Sept. 21, the county’s daily case rate was 4.3. “We had a few days where we had less than 10 cases a day, but we’ve had other days where we’ve had more than 10 cases a day, so I think it’s a matter of keeping an eye on that and not becoming complacent.”

Napa County was initially placed into the red tier when California on Aug. 31 rolled out its four-tiered, color-coded rating system that gives the state — not its individual 58 counties — control over monitoring the spread of COVID-19.

While Napa County is in a holding pattern, neighboring Sonoma County remains where it began, in the purple tier, the most restrictive category.

Sonoma County’s overall test positivity is currently 5%. The county must bring its test positivity down to 8% or less to move to the red tier, and reduce its average daily transmission rate down to 7 or fewer cases per 100,000 people. It is currently 10.7 cases per 100,000.

But now there is a third benchmark counties must meet to move to the next tier: a health equity metric. In order for a county to move to a less-restrictive tier, disadvantaged communities have to come within 5% of the overall test positivity rate required for that tier.

The health equity metric took effect on Oct. 6 and applies to counties with populations greater than 106,000.

Both Napa and Marin counties met the required health equity rate as of Oct. 6.

Sonoma County is falling short of the health equity metric, aimed at reducing the disproportionate impact of COVID-19 on minorities and disadvantaged communities, according to The Press Democrat.

Since the beginning of the pandemic, Latinos in Sonoma County have been hit harder than other racial or ethnic groups by the coronavirus pandemic, though local health officials have had some success reducing COVID-19 disparities, the outlet reported.

In early summer, Latinos accounted for as much as 77% of all COVID-19 cases, though they only comprise about a quarter of the county’s population. Latinos now comprise 54% of cases, according to the latest county public health data.

Marin County, however, has its proverbial eye on moving ahead to the orange tier within weeks.

“We’re seeing significant progress,” Dr. Matt Willis told the Board of Supervisors on Oct. 7. “Our case counts, hospitalizations and percent positivity rate are the lowest they’ve been in about four months.”

Marin County as of Oct. 5 had an adjusted daily case rate of 4.3 and 1.8% test positivity.

On Sept. 15, Marin County moved from the purple tier, where it started, to the red tier. That move had been anticipated to happen earlier. On Sept. 4, the county, in consultation with the California Department of Public Health, announced plans to move to the red tier, according to the county’s website. But on Sept. 7, CDPH notified the county its status would not change.

The county appealed and on Sept. 15 won after state data was reanalyzed. It was moved into the red tier the same day.

The San Francisco Chronicle, Napa Valley Register and Marin Independent Journal contributed to this report.