North Bay business owners reveal whether it’ll be a naughty or nice shopping season

Even though a national poll found 84% of small and medium retailers expect increased sales this holiday season compared to last year, North Bay businesses are not universally optimistic.

“I don’t know if retail business can ever go back to what it was,” said Hengameh Rafii, who for 35 years has owned The Holiday Shoppe in Sausalito. “Knock on wood, I may be one of the ones that is a little bit luckier than the average retail store because I’m specialized and the number of years I’ve been in business. I think those factors are beneficial, and our customer service.”

Raffi’s sales are not back to pre-COVID numbers, though her fingers are crossed that day will come.

While online shopping was popular before the pandemic, those purchases accelerated in 2020 when stores were closed and people didn’t want to have contact with others. Multitudes of shoppers have never returned to brick and mortar shops.

Raffi speaks for herself and others when she says, “Unfortunately, many customers look at a store like a showroom, and then order online. That is very hurtful. The more people shop online, the more businesses are going to shut down.”

The Holiday Shoppe has a presence online, but Raffi said, “A small business like mine cannot compete with Wayfair, Walmart and Amazon. It’s very difficult for a small business to compete online.”

The National Retail Federation expects online and other non-store sales to increase between 7% and 9% this season, for a total ranging between $273.7 billion and $278.8 billion. This compares to $255.8 billion in online sales in 2022.

The big picture

Fiverr International Ltd., which connects businesses with self-employed independent contractors, said in addition to the 84% of retailers feeling good about this season, almost one-third expect sales to increase significantly.

The survey found businesses with one to nine employees are as optimistic or more so than companies with 100 to 249 workers.

“Their optimism could be tied to predictions for consumer behavior, as many shoppers have said they plan to spend more this year than last year. This was even more true for younger shoppers who have shown that they are especially eager to spend, and are increasingly engaging with new shopping outlets and marketing channels like TikTok, for example, to find brands and gifts,” said Michal Miller Levi, senior director of market research and insights at Fiverr. “Over half of retail leaders said they plan to increase spending on social media ads ahead of the holidays.”

Levi added, “While consumers are continuing to look to platforms like Instagram and Facebook for shopping inspiration, the rise of TikTok as both a marketing channel and a shopping forum makes it potentially a strong platform for businesses to grow their presence ahead of the holidays. For brands targeting young shoppers, this is especially true — 37% of Gen Z’ers in our survey said they planned to find gifts through the platform this year.”

Nicole Yarbrough, owner of Pink Arrows Boutique in Benicia, is all about reaching people on social media because she says people as a general rule are not strolling through this Solano County town.

“I think social media is a huge player in driving traffic. We do a ton of social media, give aways, work with bloggers,” Yarbrough said. “You need to speak to customers every day so they are excited to shop your store. My advice is don’t be afraid to jump on Instagram and put up a story. I think the best are where there are mistakes and you are genuine instead of perfect where you hire a company. If they like a person, they are going to shop there. People follow people they like, real genuine people.”

Fiverr and the National Retail Federation in their respective polls found people are also looking for deals as they shop for holiday presents.

The organization found 62% of those surveyed said sales and promotions are even more important this year than last year.

The California Chamber of Commerce in October had Bold Decision and Pierrepont Consulting & Analytics conduct a poll of likely 2024 general election voters to gauge their attitudes about various economic topics.

While it has not been determined how the results, which were released in November, will translate directly to holiday shopping, the stats are as follows:

• 83% said rising prices have caused them or their families to adjust spending habits; of those 47% said by “a lot.”
• More than two-thirds reported their households’ finances and current economic situation is worse than a year ago; nearly one-quarter said “much worse.”
• 58% say the economy will be worse off a year from now.
• 51% believe it is unlikely their economic situation will improve in the next year.

Not everything is rosy

Worries about the economy are what have some North Bay business leaders and retailers concerned as well.

“I think people in general are not going to be spending,” Jared Neumayr, president and CEO of the Fairfield-Suisun Chamber of Commerce, said. “I assume people are going to be more cautious about how they spend because of the economy and not being certain how things are sitting.”

Sebastopol-based Copperfield’s Books said this entire year has been hard because of the economy. However, online shopping isn’t the company’s biggest threat.

“It’s more how the economy and the world is going; those are better indicators for us for how things will be,” Aubury Doherty, chief operating officer of Copperfield’s, said.

Even so, she is still hopeful the season will be more joyful than sorrowful.

One thing Copperfield’s is doing at each of its locations is reaching out to other businesses to be collaborative. Getting multiple businesses to stay open later on occasion to give shoppers more hours to browse and purchase is one way of being community minded.

The company has stores in San Rafael, Healdsburg, Sebastopol, Novato, Napa, Petaluma, Santa Rosa, Calistoga, and Larkspur.

The fourth quarter is often retailers’ make or break period. Yarbrough at Pink Arrows Boutique in Benicia said Nov. 15 to Dec. 15 is really the true holiday shopping period. Small Business Saturday (Nov. 25) and the first Friday of December (Dec. 1) are traditionally her busiest days.

“I feel like this year so far has been on the tight side for customers. They are definitely waiting to make purchases and shopping around a lot before deciding,” Yarbrough said. “For our shop, the Christmas inventory been strong so far. People are in the spirit, but are also careful with their money. The good stuff always goes first, so I always recommend people shop early.”

Cort Larned, owner of 101 Surf Sports in San Rafael, had banner years in 2020 and 2021, selling twice as much goods as normal. Then the customers went away and haven’t come back.

“Now there’s glut on the market,” he said.

His shop is one of the largest in Northern California when it comes to paddleboards, windsurfing, kite boards and other equipment to play on the water.

“The economy and two wars going on has an effect on people’s discretionary income,” Larned said. Even so, he added, “We are not going anywhere. We love what we do.”

Feeling hopeful

Tallia Hart, CEO of the Healdsburg Chamber of Commerce, said holiday events downtown help energize businesses and shoppers.

“I feel like from a business perspective people are excited for the holidays,” she said. She admits, though, interest rates are leading to “conservative spending.”

Her counterpart in Sebastopol, Myriah Volk — executive director of the chamber there — said her Sonoma County town has a lot of energy with new restaurants and shops opening. She said established businesses are working with newer ones to promote the area.

Volk said what’s hurting Sebastopol businesses is government officials aren’t working with the business community.

Silk Moon Gallery owner Andrea Caron also wishes the City Council were more responsive to the needs of downtown Sebastopol businesses owners, and those throughout town.

“I’ve never had a city councilmember come talk to us and I’ve been a business owner for a decade on Main Street,” Caron said.

In spite of the government’s troubles, Caron is optimistic about this holiday season, noting people are already buying gifts. The first packages were wrapped Nov. 7, much earlier than normal.

It helps that her shop this season is full of clothes, shoes, jewelry, accessories and other potential gifts.

She believes people want that tactile experience—to actually touch, hold and try on items before purchasing them. That’s why Caron doesn't believe the online shops will drive her out of business.

On top of that, she said people want good customer service. Caron believes people are starting to want more human interaction, which is what local businesses can and do provide.

Serafina Palandech at Luminarium, a gift shop in Sebastopol, is in a unique position. This is her first holiday season, having opened in the spring.

“I was very intentional about creating an environment that is welcoming, comfortable, inviting, and smells good. I think there is a real need for that,” Palandech said. “I think there is something to be said for personal experiences. I have been hearing there is a growing response that people want to go back to retail stores.”

That, and the amount of foot traffic Palandech has been seeing, makes her confident her first holiday season will be bountiful.

The Archer Hotel in Napa is excited about its holiday bookings.

“There is a robust pipeline of holiday parties already booked for both businesses and social functions,” General Manager Michael Collins said. “This year and last are pacing on par with each other thus far and up significantly from 2021.”

See’s Candies in Coddingtown Shopping Center in Santa Rosa said its store is already busy, with a noticeable increase in customers starting the week before Halloween.

Bespoke Napa Valley in St. Helena, which sells apparel, accessories and décor, had Christmas items out in early October, a month earlier than normal. Manager Kate Hamlin said this has generated a buzz that makes her hopeful.

“I think people are buying early and are excited for the holidays,” Hamlin said.