How the North Bay’s population decline could affect the workforce of the future
The decline in population across California is also showing up as a drop in student enrollment in the North Bay. That could have an impact on the workforce of the future.
Sonoma County, for example, with an enrollment of 64,375 students, registered a loss of 427 students this school year compared with 2021–2022. Each of the 40 school districts is impacted differently.
A drop in the birthrate, years of natural disasters including wildfires, families moving out of the area because of housing costs, all have contributed to enrollment loss, according to Eric Wittmershaus, director of communications for Sonoma County Office of Education.
Last fall, the education agency bought a residential parcel to build high-density housing for educators and other employees. Wittmershaus acknowledges it won’t move the meter much in terms of housing woes, but it’s a start.
Dunbar Elementary School in Glen Ellen, for instance, won’t open in the fall. West Sonoma County Union High School District closed El Molino High School in Forestville two years ago because of declining enrollment. At the time, moving students to Sebastopol’s Analy High School was projected to save about $1 million a year.
“With the (population) trend expected to continue, there might be more school districts facing similar choices — to close or reorganize,” Wittmershaus said.
One thing helping elementary schools throughout the state is the roll out of transitional kindergarten, which is optional for 4-year-olds. If more people return to work, this might be an option for parents who are struggling to find day care, experts say.
It’s not just Sonoma County schools losing kids. The California Department of Finance forecasts an 8.9% enrollment decline statewide by 2032, or 523,685 fewer students compared with 2021–2022.
Of the counties expected to have the largest proportional drops in enrollment in the next eight years, four local ones are in the top 20. Sonoma is expected to drop 15.2% — sixth on the list; Napa, 14%, ninth; Marin, 12.7% 11th; and Mendocino, 8.5%, 18th.
Lake County is forecast to have the state’s 14th highest percentage enrollment jump, up 5.6% by 2032. Solano County could nearly break even, with a 0.7% dip, replacing Sonoma as the North Bay county with the highest enrollment.
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Correction, May 24, 2023: Sonoma County’s K-12 enrollment this school year is 64,375, a decline of 427 students from 64,802 in the 2021‒2022 school year.
