North Coast wine industry cautiously optimistic as 2024 grape season starts

Wine grape growers and vintners are cautiously optimistic as the 2024 season gets underway for the North Coast crop, which amounted to $1.8 billion in fruit sales last year.

Early signs of budbreak — when shoots emerge from chardonnay vines after their winter naps — have emerged in warmer parts of Sonoma and Napa counties, while Mendocino and Lake counties are typically a week or two behind because of historically cooler conditions. It’s mostly normal timing for budbreak in the areas. Winter rains have left adequate soil moisture and pond levels.

“This year is the first time in four or five years for a normal start to the season,” said Christian Klier, a North Coast grape dealer for Turrentine Brokerage.

Last year’s downpours and cool temperatures followed three years of drought and led to a late season start and late harvest. Despite record tonnage for North Coast sauvignon blanc and Napa County cabernet sauvignon, some pinot noir grapes in the region didn’t get picked because wineries didn’t have the space for tons in excess of contract amounts, Klier said.

While the growing conditions look favorable so far, uncertainty looms about consumers’ thirst for wine amid inflation and other economic unease. Wineries are taking a cautious approach to contracting grapes beyond core varietals like Sonoma County chardonnay and Napa Valley cabernet sauvignon.

Glenn Proctor, partner of wine and grape brokerage Ciatti Company, said inventories of wine available for sale in bulk are currently larger than at this time last year, leading some wineries to wait on purchasing grapes until they have a clearer picture of sales projections. This is especially true for red varietals, where demand has softened.

Proctor noted that overall sales of wine have seen slower growth in recent years, and that’s challenging the supply situation more than in previous business cycles. From the early 1990s up to about five years ago, U.S. wine sales were expanding around 2.5%–3% annually. That allowed the market to more easily absorb excess grape supply from larger harvests.

However, with weaker sales growth in premium wines in recent years, there is less demand to absorb the extra supply. That’s leading to tough conversations throughout the state and even in areas of the North Coast about the financial return of vineyards with lower yield per acre.

“We’re in a market where money is not inexpensive with interest rates very high, and banks are taking a harder look at the numbers,” Proctor said.

On the bright side, wineries are eagerly sourcing white varietals, particularly sauvignon blanc and chardonnay from Sonoma and Napa counties, supplemented by Lake and Mendocino counties. A consumer shift toward white wines is driving demand, Klier said.

Labor availability could get some relief this season. With the decline in cannabis production, more workers appear to be returning to vineyard work, Klier said.

And some growers also plan to reduce their reliance on the federal H-2A guest worker program, according to Francisco Araujo, who oversees technical winegrowing operations for Napa-based Atlas Vineyard Management, which operates throughout the North Coast. That has allowed for more hands to do prep work to get the vineyards ready for the new crop.

“We have all the engines idling, ready to start,” Araujo said.

With budbreak and vine shoot growth set to accelerate with clearer, warmer days forecast through the end of March, the next way marker for the season will be bloom, when vine flowers self-pollinate. If weather holds, bloom typically comes in mid-May, but the colder, wetter season last year pushed that into mid-June.

Bloom is a stage of the season that brings worry that strong winds or rain can disrupt this critical stage for “setting” grape berries in the cluster for further development, an unwanted outcome called “shatter.”

Jeff Quackenbush covers wine, construction and real estate. Reach him at jquackenbush@busjrnl.com or 707-521-4256.