Northern California officials wary of solar storm threat to the grid

As if the North Bay hasn’t fought enough battles with the coronavirus, wildfires and power outages, here’s another possible “corona” threat — solar outbursts and flares that are expected to peak in 2025.

The out-of-this-world threat has local consequences if it materializes, so local emergency and utility officials are tracking space weather warnings to see when action is needed to protect critical systems, such as grid transformers and medical equipment.

As of last December, bursts of energy from the sun’s corona — the outermost part of its atmosphere, seen during eclipses — started increasing in its latest cycle and will continue to do so, according to a panel led by NASA and the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration. The event on Sept. 15 was called “Solar Cycle 25,” which is predicted to be a weaker 11-year cycle than some. The “25” refers to the number of time periods that the astrophysicists have formally studied the atmospheric phenomenon.

These coronal mass ejections have been known to disrupt the power grid and on-the-ground transformers as well as air traffic operations, satellite transmissions, space travel, global positioning systems and all sorts of telecommunications outlets. Even doves released at weddings have been known to be out of whack.

NOAA solar physicist Doug Biesecker told the Business Journal about an “epic, 100-year solar storm that missed the Earth” in July 2012.

“They’re like hurricanes. Most don’t make landfall, but the few that do really do matter,” he said.

The panel stated power grids are susceptible to these electromagnetic spikes and power transformers in particular are vulnerable — not a good sign for regions characterized as “power vulnerable” like the Pacific Gas and Electric-reliant North Bay.

PG&E’s meteorology team told the Business Journal that it factors in space weather events, particularly during episodes of heightened solar activity. From there, the Northern California utility company sends out alerts internally when a geomagnetic storm is approaching to protect its critical infrastructure.

These balls of fury from the sun serve as electromagnetic waves that can damage transmission equipment acutely or over time.

“The one thing we know about transformers is they build up damage over time. If the activity is increased, we may have to replace transformers,” NOAA solar physicist Doug Biesecker said.

Local impact of solar weather

Agencies and local governments face a whole slew of challenges associated with these electromagnetic spikes.

“A power grid operator can model a response upon a solar storm,” he said, adding aviation alerts as another notification space weather officials use to warn the public.

Managers of the state power grid, the California ISO, also cautioned that a “geomagnetic disturbance“-induced event may cause transformer hot-spot heating or damage in addition to a loss of reactive power sources and with that increased power demand. Massive disruptions could lead to voltage collapse or even a blackout or combination thereof.

Power grid managers work off a 44-page document that highlights the threat and processes to alleviate such problems.

Power disruptions make up one in about three dozen threats most state and local emergency services officials track and respond to, said Sonoma County Director of Emergency Management Christopher Godley.

In agreeing with Biesecker, Godley equated the issue to a sneaker wave in the ocean.

“You could have about 1,000 waves of regular height, then this one comes up,” he said.

“Unfortunately, with solar weather, it’s not just one and done,” Godley said.

There’s not one grand plan to alleviate the full effects of a massive solar flare. Godley noted the degradation of radio transmitters is more apt to occur with solar pulses.

“A solar flare could cause significant problems for our community,” he said.

If the threat becomes real, Godley warned the county would take its systems off the grid in a process called “decoupling.”

From there, the county would treat its community systems like those its citizens have and warn the community to power down and unplug computers and medical equipment.

“Electrical grid power issues are what we’re used to seeing with PG&E shutdowns. The challenges are that very few facilities are hardened against this kind of effect,” he said, further admitting electronics are still “vulnerable.”

And with a mass global embrace of people doing business online, the threat and damage could be more widespread than ever before.

“There is no bad weather, just bad preparation,” said Jake Bleacher, NASA’s chief scientist for Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate. “Space weather is what it is — our job to prepare.”

Bleacher compares the scenario to someone taking a trip, failing to take the right outer wear and complaining about the experience.