Dry conditions prompt warning, concerns about potential for wildfire ignition

It’s only February and forecasters and fire officials are already talking about a growing threat of wildfires.

And while they’re not ready to sound the alarm, they do want people to be careful.

A lack of rain and persistent offshore breezes are simply sucking the landscape dry. Humidity levels are dropping and reducing fuel moisture to levels more commonly seen in May or June, which used to be considered the start of fire season.

That’s a somewhat antiquated concept, with catastrophic wildfires now a threat year-round in the West.

But the point is, February should be defined by midwinter weather: cold and wet.

Instead, less than an inch of rain has fallen since Jan. 1, and forecasters say the outlook for February so far is continued dry, with unseasonably warm weather and temperatures expected to set record highs later this week.

Low humidity is also an issue, with values measured at Cal Fire’s Oak Ridge lookout near Annapolis, 2,000 feet elevation, dropping to 9% late Sunday night and early Monday morning, Cal Fire Battalion Chief Marshal Turbeville said.

“All that dry air is just pulling moisture out of the ground, pulling moisture out of the vegetation,” Turbeville said.

That’s why forecasters like Matt Mehle, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Monterey, have begun inserting suggestions that “extra care should be taken this week with any outdoor open flames” into their forecast discussion notes.

“Remember: ‘One less spark — one less wildfire!’ ” he wrote.

Fire and meteorology types are particularly concerned about the region’s ERC, or “energy release component,” a closely watched index that reflects fuel moisture content and is used to indicate potential wildfire intensity.

The earth is still damp from October’s record rain, allowing live plants to draw some moisture from the ground still, Turbeville said.

However, offshore winds over several days in late January and early February, and continued dry, offshore flows have been parching forest litter like fallen trees, limbs and twigs at higher elevations.

Chamise at upper elevations is critically dry — about what it should be in June in some parts of the greater Bay Area, according to assessments by the Northern California Geographic Coordination Center.

Current fuel moisture readings are at June 1 conditions, meaning possible early start to summer fire season, Turbeville said.

“We’re two or three months ahead of schedule,” he said.

Sonoma County Fire District Chief Mark Heine agreed.

“It’s a growing issue, I would call it,” he said.

In particular, he advised extreme care for anyone burning agricultural waste or conducting prescribed burns that, if gusty winds arise, could get out of hand.

“We do encourage that because it’s a good way for to clear the previous crops and flammable vegetation,” Heine said. “It just needs to be done with an extra layer of caution because of the current status of the fuels.”

High winds reaching 90 mph and above during the weekend of Jan. 22 already have fanned two small wildfires in Sonoma County. One was a 1½-acre blaze on Geyser Peak and the other was a smaller, quarter-acre fire along Chalk Hill Road.

That same weekend, raging winds sent hundreds of people fleeing the Colorado fire on the Big Sur coastline after high winds blew embers from a pile burn into nearby vegetation. That fire grew to 687 acres, Cal Fire said.

Any fire presents a risk to life and property, even if it’s not catastrophic, Mehle said in an interview.

“We’re really just advocating that people should just be mindful,” he said.

You can reach Staff Writer Mary Callahan at 707-521-5249 or mary.callahan@pressdemocrat.com. On Twitter @MaryCallahanB.