Has California’s winter COVID-19 surge peaked? Some numbers improve with holidays ahead

A recent surge of coronavirus cases and hospitalizations in California is showing early signs of slowing down, state health data show, though health officials are still expressing caution as the winter holidays approach with other respiratory viruses including seasonal influenza also continuing to spread.

The California Department of Public Health in a weekly update Thursday reported the daily case rate for COVID-19 at 21.6 per 100,000 residents, up 7% compared to last week.

However, California’s statewide test positivity rate dipped to 11.1%, from 11.5% last week, reversing what had been a sharp and steady incline from late October through early December. The state entered November at 4.6% positivity and December at 11.7%.

The increasing case rate and decreasing positivity come amid a slight testing uptick following the Thanksgiving holiday.

Hospitalizations with COVID-19 climbed to 4,508, CDPH reported Thursday, for a 3% increase compared to one week earlier. Hospitalizations had increased by 16% the preceding week.

Patient totals continue to rise in some parts of the state, including the capital region. Others, including Los Angeles County, have seen patient totals begin to plateau.

Sacramento County had 212 COVID-positive patients in hospital beds, CDPH reported Thursday, up from 200 one week earlier. Placer County increased to 86 patients from 76.

Recent wastewater data tracked by a Stanford-based research group show a sharp decline in COVID-19 activity over the past week in Sacramento, as well as some parts of the Bay Area.

Increases in infections and hospitalizations throughout November came as subvariants of omicron known as BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 began to take over as the dominant strain in circulation.

The two BQ-family variants combined for 68% of cases nationwide, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said in a weekly update last Friday, up from 63% the previous week.

Where may masks be required if COVID surge deepens?

Sacramento City Unified School District in a news release earlier this month reiterated that under its policy, the district would return to an indoor mask requirement if Sacramento County is placed by the CDC into the “high” community level for COVID-19 danger.

The CDC publishes community level assignments each Thursday, in the afternoon. Sacramento County on Dec. 1 moved from the “low” to “medium” risk level, along with El Dorado, Placer and Yolo counties.

A main threshold for the high community level classification is a seven-day case rate of 200 per 100,000 residents. The CDC last week reported Sacramento County at 168 cases per 100,000, which was nearly double the 86 cases per 100,000 reported the preceding week. The CDC uses slightly different calculations than CDPH, so it is unclear whether the recent slowdown will be enough to keep the figure below 200.

Sacramento City Unified has said that if the county returns to the high level, the mask rule change would go into effect the following Monday. The K-12 district adjourns for a two-week winter break after next week.

In Los Angeles County, public health director Dr. Barbara Ferrer said this month that a return to a countywide mask mandate would be triggered if 10% of hospital beds in the county were occupied by COVID-19 patients. The CDC as of last week reported that figure at 7.2%, up from 6.8% the previous week.

Los Angeles County entered the CDC’s high community level last week.

Most California counties are now in at least the CDC’s medium level for COVID-19 danger. Under a change to state health orders in September, masks are required in non-health care congregate settings – which include jails, prisons and homeless shelters – only in counties placed within the medium or high level.

Before that change, masks had been required in those settings regardless of CDC community level, as continues to be the case for all health care settings, including hospitals and nursing homes.

Sacramento-area numbers by county

Sacramento County’s latest case rate is 18.3 per 100,000 residents, state health officials said in Thursday’s update, an 8% increase from one week earlier.

Hospitals in Sacramento County were treating 212 patients Wednesday, state data updated Thursday show, up from 200 one week earlier. The intensive care unit total increased to 30 from 29.

Placer County’s latest case rate is 13.3 per 100,000 residents, a 1% increase from one week earlier.

Hospitals in Placer County were treating 86 virus patients Wednesday, up from 76 one week earlier. The ICU total increased to 12 from five.

Yolo County’s latest case rate is 13 per 100,000 residents, a 15% increase from one week earlier.

Hospitals in Yolo County were treating four virus patients Wednesday, down from seven a week earlier. The ICU total remained at one.

El Dorado County’s latest case rate is 11.6 per 100,000 residents, a 17% decrease from one week earlier.

Hospitals in El Dorado County were treating 12 virus patients Wednesday, up from seven a week earlier. The ICU total remained at zero.

Sutter County’s latest case rate is 13.6 per 100,000 residents, up 25% from last week, and Yuba County’s is 13.6 per 100,000, down 11%, state health officials reported Thursday.

The only hospital in Yuba County, which serves the Yuba-Sutter bicounty area, was treating nine virus patients Wednesday, down from 12 a week earlier. The ICU total remained at zero.